The month of October offered one of the clearest windows into how Northern Virginia’s housing market responded during the historic federal shutdown. Since the shutdown began on October 1st and extended well into November, the data from October 1st–30th provides a timely look at market behavior during a period of uncertainty.
Despite the disruption, the housing market in Northern Virginia showed notable resilience.
Home Prices Held Strong
In October, the median sold price reached an even $700,000.
This represents:
- +1.6% from the previous month
- +6% from the previous year
These numbers reflect a market that maintained strong home values despite broader economic concerns.
Sales Activity Continued at a Healthy Pace
October recorded 2,470 closed sales, a meaningful increase from both timelines:
- +7.3% month-over-month
- +3.5% year-over-year
Closings continued steadily, a promising sign that buyer demand remained present even during the shutdown.
Days on Market Remained Stable
Homes spent an average of 27 days on the market, the same as September.
Compared to 2024, this is five days longer, indicating a slower, more deliberate pace — but steady month-to-month.
While properties are taking slightly longer to go under contract, the consistency from September to October reflects stability rather than decline.
Inventory Dropped Month-to-Month but Rose Sharply Year-over-Year
The number of homes available at the end of October was 4,238, showing:
- –8% from the previous month
- +40% from the previous year
That 40% increase is significant. It suggests that this fall, homeowners were more hesitant to list — likely influenced by the uncertainty surrounding the shutdown and its potential ripple effects. Many sellers chose to wait and see how events unfolded.
Sale-to-List Price Ratios Remained Competitive
The sold-price-to-original-list-price ratio came in at 98.1%.
This small shift shows:
- Only –0.1% from last month
- –1.5% from last year
Even with slight declines, a ratio above 98% remains highly competitive. While the frenzy of 100%+ sale-to-list ratios has cooled, sellers are still achieving strong numbers relative to their original list price.
Buyer Behavior: Serious and Motivated
October and November traditionally draw more serious buyers and sellers — people who must make a move due to job changes, family needs, or relocation timelines.
Feedback from open houses across the region reflects this trend. Early in the shutdown, many visitors were local neighbors, curious about market conditions. As weeks passed, a fresh wave of motivated buyers began showing up — including active shoppers and agents bringing clients. This reinforced a sense of ongoing demand despite uncertainty.
The Shutdown’s Psychological Impact
While the market data showed resilience, the prolonged shutdown created real concerns. Many in the community wondered whether the situation could repeat soon — especially with another potential disruption looming just months away.
This uncertainty didn’t stop the market, but it did prompt both buyers and sellers to act thoughtfully, focusing on preparation and clear decision-making.
Interest Rates: A Quiet but Meaningful Shift
One bright spot in recent months has been mortgage interest rates. Over the past six months:
- Rates have declined from around 7%
- To the low sixes, near 6.1–6.2% on average
- And many lenders in Northern Virginia are quoting mid-5% rates for well-qualified borrowers
This gradual decline, though modest, provides a welcome boost for buyers who needed a slightly lower rate to make monthly payments more comfortable. The movement has been slow but steady — exactly what economists predicted for this year.
Looking Ahead
As the year winds down, several indicators will shape the next phase of Northern Virginia real estate. A major Federal Reserve report is expected in early December, and many are watching for further clarity on rates, economic conditions, and seasonal buyer activity.
Even with the uncertainty of the shutdown and future political shifts, the Northern Virginia market has shown strength, consistency, and a steady flow of serious buyers and sellers. October’s numbers confirm that confidence in local real estate remains strong — and that the region continues to hold its place as one of the most resilient housing markets in the country.
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