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Studying the housing statistics for Northern Virginia for the end of December, we see all the signs of a seasonal low. It’s the time of year for holidays, family get togethers, and cold winter weather. The numbers show a sluggish time for housing sales. The new year seems more promising as mortgage interest rates fell to mid 6% levels and buyers seem to be heading back to the market. Here’s the latest numbers and what it means for the Northern Virginia real estate market.

Statistics and What it Means

Using statistics from MarketStats by ShowingTime, we looked at 10 counties in Northern Virginia – Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fauquier, Loudoun, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William. Here are the highlights for Northern Virginia in general, Prince William, and Loudoun counties.

Northern Virginia Counties for market statistics

The median sale price for a home in Northern Virginia is now $629,000, which is about the same as the previous month and up 11.3% from this time last year.

At the end of October 2023, there were 1,614 homes sold in Northern Virginia. This is down 11% from the previous month and down 12% from last year. This speaks to the extremely low number of homes for sale in the area. Part of this is also due to the holiday season, which tends to be a slower time in the real estate market.

The number of Days on Market for Northern Virginia is now 24 days, which is 4 more days than last month and 7 days less than this time last year.

This month, there are 1,820 homes for sale. This is about 26% less than last month and about 22% less homes than year. Additionally homes sold at 98.6% of the original asking price. In general, home owners are getting close to their asking price.

Inventory Levels

Inventory levels remain low in Northern Virginia. Month’s Supply refers to how many months it will take to sell all the current homes currently on the market. Most consider a balanced market, where buyers and sellers are on the same playing field, to be about 3-6 months supply. Currently, Northern Virginia has a month’s supply of homes for sale of 1.1; this is the about the same as it was last month.

Bright MLS Buyer Demand Index

According to Bright MLS Home Demand Index, buyer demand in the Washington Metro Area (which includes Northern Virginia) remains “Limited”. The Bright MLS | T3 Home Demand Index measures and tracks consumer and real estate professional behavior related to shopping for real estate. They look at metrics such as views of homes online and in-person showings. Ratings are categorized into 5 score points: Limited (under 70 points), Slow (70-89), Steady (90-109), Moderate (110-129), and High demand (over 130).

This month, buyer demand are LIMITED across most areas and may be mainly reflecting the slow winter season of real estate. The top five highest ranking areas in Northern Virginia are: SLOW in Arlington (98); and LIMITED in Alexandria City (61), Manassas City (60), Prince William County (58), Spotsylvania (50), and Falls Church (40). Loudoun County’s buyer demand is LIMITED at 36.

What the Experts are Predicting

As 2024 is in full swing, the predictions are beginning to go away. Most experts are waiting patiently for the Federal Reserve to announce the latest federal funds rate at the end of January. While inflation was steadily declining, the latest figure shows inflation inched up a bit. If the Federal Reserve takes this seriously, they may choose to leave the rate as is or ma even increase the rate to tackle rising inflation. Only time will tell the outcome.

The good news of the market update for November 2023 is that home prices seem to holding steady and strong. When correctly priced, homes continue to sell for what sellers are asking. Multiple offers are no longer the norm. There are exceptions, however. When proper pricing and excellent condition meet, multiple offers are an advantage to homeowners. In the articles, Home Pricing for Multiple Offers and Get Top Dollar for Without the Stress you’ll learn more about the right conditions for successful home-run sales.


Advice to Sellers

For homeowners in Northern Virginia, accurate pricing and good condition remain crucial ingredients to ensure a smooth and successful sale. If done properly, expect to get close to your original list price and go under contract in about 3 weeks.

Advice to Buyers

Lower interest rates mean higher buying power and more affordability. If you were thinking to buying, this is the time to prepare by checking credit score and evaluating savings needed for closing.

Bottom Line

The market update for January 2024 shows the figures that confirm a slow ending of the previous year. This year seems to be off to a much better start. What are you seeing?

Questions/Concerns? Please contact us.